The New New Zealand by Paul Spoonley

Author:Paul Spoonley
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Massey University Press
Published: 2020-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

Figure 7: Population change between 2018 and 2019 by territorial authority; inset: Auckland local board areas

Source: Stats NZ, 2019

Even though Otago, and especially Central Otago, had some of the most impressive percentage growth rates, the annual additional population growth was 4700 — much lower than the major growth centres in the North Island and only slighter higher than the annual growth rate for Northland (4000), for example. This overall picture was reinforced by a 2016 Infometrics report on regional growth hotspots.5 The most impressive projected percentage growth locations for the period 2013–23 were Hobsonville in Auckland (245 per cent) and southwest Christchurch (85 per cent). Of the 10 hotspots identified, four were in Auckland.

But what was striking was the size of the actual growth in each of these hotspots. Orewa–Albany was predicted to have 17,580 more people and central Auckland (that is, the central business district plus Parnell and Eden Terrace) 24,410 additional people in this period. But non-Auckland growth hotspots, such as Papamoa in the Bay of Plenty, were predicted to grow by 5190, central Christchurch by 4270 and Central Otago by 5880. The quantum of growth is rather different.

Canterbury is something of an outlier, largely as a result of the earthquakes and the nature of the rebuild. There has been a significant displacement of the Christchurch city population to surrounding areas — and a net migration loss to other parts of New Zealand. Figure 8 indicates this out-migration after the 2011–12 earthquakes. There were two rather different primary destinations: Auckland, and the Christchurch-adjacent areas of Waimakariri and Selwyn. Since then, Christchurch has grown — and is still growing, although slightly below the national average at 1.4 per cent in 2019. But the impressive growth has, again, been achieved in Selwyn (5.3 per cent) and Waimakariri (2.4 per cent).

The peri-urban fringe of Christchurch and even areas further out have been the location of major new residential developments and the city is becoming geographically dispersed; there is some movement back to the centre, but this is — for the moment — outpaced by the adjacent area growth. The Christchurch rebuild is still far from complete and there might well be future growth as houses are replaced or intensification occurs in certain suburbs or the CBD. The other feature of Christchurch is the arrival of migrant workers, notably from Ireland and the Philippines, to help with the rebuild. Some of these workers were temporary, albeit long-term temporary, but others have settled with their families. This has produced significant changes in the ethnic composition of a city that in the past had been dominated originally by European settlers and then Pākehā.

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